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Two integrating activities are necessary for preparing the core models for the policy simulations. First, the models were extended, if
necessary, as to the list of variables needed for Impact Assessment (IA). Second, matching input variables were defined for the forecasting,
simulation, and backcasting analyses. The result of this task was a comprehensive analytical framework that integrates the comparative advantages
of various model designs and emphasises issues related to sustainability.
Impact Assessment (IA) in terms of a “careful assessment of the full effects of [any larger] policy proposal [that] must include estimates of its
economic, environmental and societal inputs inside and outside the EU” is now mandatory for all major EU policy initiatives. In general, there is no
specific model that fits all requirements for comprehensive SIA, but rather a package of models (or methods) depending on the policy measure or issue
to be assessed and the availability of data.
The EC and Belgian Ministry of Scientific Affairs organised in 2001 a workshop to give an overview and classification of tools and methodologies for
underpinning SD policies. A set of models was presented and their contribution to SD policy discussed with respect to their ability to take into
account five methodological criteria which are of crucial importance as far as SD issues are considered: risk and uncertainty, interdisciplinarity
, glocality (globality/locality), long-term and stakeholders’ participation.
Given this background, the main activities within Task 1 were:
- The increase of the range of indicators covered by the various models either by systematic (complementary) inter-linkages or by straightforward
specific model extensions.
- The matching of input variables as a prerequisite for joint model application for forecasting, simulation, and backcasting.
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