Focus of the project

The focus of this research project is to scan a wide range of policy scenarios as to their relevance for the European Sustainable Development Strategy in view of Extended Impact Assessment. Embedded in the TranSust network of researchers, with its expertise in modelling the transition to sustainable economic structures, the project links and expands an extensive set of available models. Using a scenario approach in cooperation with stakeholders, these models address the strategic policy options.

Extension of existing models

In a first step, existing models were extended to reflect the multifunctionality aspect of sustainability policies and their trade-offs with other policies. In addition to the traditional economic, environmental and social issues, the expanded models address the new policy agenda as put forward by the Lisbon Strategy of the European Union and the World Summit for Economic Development. The models are therefore able to deal with:

• Competitiveness
• Economic development
• Security
• The preparations for Beyond-Kyoto policies
• The interaction between technological change and the use of natural resources

Scanning policy scenarios

In a second step, this enhanced set of models is used for a comprehensive analysis of a wide range of policy scenarios. In designing the scenarios, a participatory approach emphasised close cooperation with stakeholders, Commission services, and international organisations. By backcasting the path dependency and by simulating the range of assumptions, the scenario analysis reveal the sensitivity of forecasts.