Workpackage 3 - Developing policy scenarios
Leading partner - UCD
Based on the analytical framework established in workpackages 1 and 2 the following procedure is applied for generating a wide range of policy scenarios that serve the purpose of strategic policy preparation in particular in the context of the European Sustainable Development Strategy:
- A consultation process
- The time horizon for all analyses is a medium and long term range 2015 – 2030.
- The scenario building work has involved:
- forecasting of future states given the implementation of currently know policies
- simulation of deviations from business-as-usual strategies
- backcasting the policy patterns needed for achieving certain policy targets
- The common evaluation criterion for all scenarios is Impact Assessment (IA).
Task 1: Consultation process with stakeholders
Leading Partner: WIFO
A consultation process has accompanied all stages for developing the policy scenarios, ranging from the design, the evaluation, and the consensus building for certain policy strategies.
Task 2: Harmonised baseline
Leading Partner: IVM
A harmonised baseline serves as a benchmark for a wide range of policy scenarios.
Task 3: Promotion of low carbon technologies
Leading Partner: ECN
Low carbon strategies have a substantial impact on technological innovation, competitiveness, economic growth, resource use, and security of supplies.
Task 4: Stimulating innovative mobility systems
Leading Partner: UCD
A range of scenarios have been developed to look at the sustainability or otherwise of current mobility systems, the impact of new policies and changes from the current ‘business as usual’ systems, and finally, the mobility systems required to achieve desired sustainable policy targets.
Task 5
Identifying Beyond-Kyoto policies
Identifying Beyond-Kyoto policies
Leading Partner: FEEM
A range of policy options after the Kyoto period 2008-2012 was analysed by this task.
Task 6
Strengthening social coherence
Strengthening social coherence
Leading Partner: SMASH
This task examined how the social dimension of the sustainability agenda is or could be treated in currently available models, and at deriving methodological proposals to upgrade this treatment (modifications of existing models, coupling with other models, new generation of models).